Marriott International, Inc. (MAR Quick QuoteMAR - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 11, 2025, before the opening bell. In the previous quarter, the company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.2%.

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MAR’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at $2.38, indicating a decline of 33.3% from $3.57 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.40 billion, implying growth of 5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Let us look at how things might have shaped in the quarter to be reported.

Key Factors to Note

Marriott’s top line in fourth-quarter 2024 is likely to have been aided by revenue per available room (RevPAR) and average daily rate (ADR) growth. The company has been benefiting from robust global travel demand, driving growth in international markets and steady performance in the United States and Canada, along with solid global booking trends.

Moreover, Marriott’s focus on unit expansion, increased co-branded credit card fees, benefits from travel and loyalty program and the launch of MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy are likely to have aided its fourth-quarter performance.

Owing to the aforementioned tailwinds, our model predicts gross fee revenues to be $1.30 billion, up 5.3% year over year. We expect RevPAR in worldwide and international markets to grow 2.9% to $124.6 and 7.1% to $128.23, respectively, year over year. We also expect Asia Pacific RevPAR to grow 3.8% to $130.2 compared with the prior year.

However, high costs and the election cycle are likely to have negatively impacted the results. The company expects fourth-quarter RevPAR to have remained consistent with the third quarter. However, management noted that the U.S. election cycle is likely to have weighed on results, with this year's impact predicted to be twice as significant as previous elections.

For the fourth quarter, our model expects the company’s total expenses to be $5.4 billion, up 0.5% year over year.

What Our Model Predicts About MAR

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marriott this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

MAR’s Earnings ESP: MAR has an Earnings ESP of +2.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MAR’s Zacks Rank: MAR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH Quick QuoteLTH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.29% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

LTH is expected to register a 10.5% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported earnings beat in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average surprise of 46.2%.

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM Quick QuoteTCOM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 1.

TCOM reported earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 42.8%. Its earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 7.1%.

Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI Quick QuoteRSI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +22.22% and a Zacks Rank of 1.

RSI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 800%. It reported earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 225%.